Posts by Volatility Box

Straddles cost more but profit from smaller moves. Strangles cost less but need bigger moves to pay off. This guide covers payoff math, Greeks profiles, earnings strategy selection, short vs long variants, and VIX-regime-based rules for choosing between them.

NQ futures are 1.3-1.5x more volatile than ES in percentage terms. This guide covers why (tech concentration, higher beta), the VXN index, ATR-based NQ stops, mega-cap earnings impact, NQ vs MNQ sizing, and Volatility Box Futures model levels.

VIX calls cost 1-2% annually and returned 300-500% during March 2020. SPY puts cost 2-3% but cover slow declines. This guide covers hedge sizing, VIX calls vs puts, collars, tail risk hedges, UVXY tactics, and regime-based hedge timing with Market Pulse.

VIX ETFs track VIX futures, not spot VIX, and decay 40-80% annually from contango. This guide compares UVXY, VXX, VIXY, SVXY, and SVIX with roll cost math, hedging analysis, tax treatment, and entry timing using VIX/VIX3M ratio.

ATR measures the average magnitude of price movement per bar including gaps. This guide covers the True Range formula, ATR-based position sizing and stop-loss placement, Chandelier Exit trailing stops, ATR% for cross-stock volatility comparison, period selection, and expansion/contraction entry patterns.

Markets spend ~35% of time in low vol, ~30% normal, ~25% elevated, and ~10% in crisis. Each regime demands different stops, position sizes, and strategies. This guide covers VIX-based classification, regime transition signals, and the Market Pulse system for real-time regime identification.

The expected move tells you the 1SD range where a stock has a ~68% chance of staying. Two formulas, strike placement for iron condors, earnings expected move, accuracy data, and where to find it on TOS, Barchart, and Tastytrade.

Long volatility positions profit when markets move more than expected — but lose money ~85% of the time from theta decay. This guide covers straddles, strangles, VIX calls, backspreads, and Universa-style tail hedging, with entry timing rules and cost-of-carry management.

VIX futures spend ~80% of the time in contango, generating 3-7% monthly roll yield. This guide covers how contango and backwardation work, how to detect regime shifts with the VIX/VIX3M ratio, and the strategies that profit in each state.

IV exceeds HV roughly 85% of the time, creating a 2-4 point volatility risk premium on SPY. This guide covers both formulas, HV lookback periods, the Black-Scholes reverse-solve for IV, IV-HV spread trading strategies, and how market makers exploit the relationship.